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Article Dans Une Revue Nature Climate Change Année : 2022

Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Nico Bauer
Panagiotis Fragkos
Daniel Huppmann
Marc Jaxa-Rozen
Ilkka Keppo
Tamás Krisztin
Giacomo Marangoni
Steve Pye
Keywan Riahi
Massimo Tavoni
  • Fonction : Auteur
Fabian Wagner

Résumé

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.
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Dates et versions

halshs-03663267 , version 1 (11-05-2022)

Identifiants

Citer

Céline Guivarch, Thomas Le Gallic, Nico Bauer, Panagiotis Fragkos, Daniel Huppmann, et al.. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights. Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12, pp.428-435. ⟨10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x⟩. ⟨halshs-03663267⟩
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