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Autre Publication Scientifique Documents de travail du Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne Année : 2022

Deliberation and the Wisdom of Crowds

Résumé

Does pre-voting group deliberation increase majority competence? To address this question, we develop a probabilistic model of opinion formation and deliberation. Two new jury theorems, one pre-deliberation and one post-deliberation, suggest that deliberation is bene…cial. Successful deliberation mitigates three voting failures: (1) overcounting widespread evidence, (2) neglecting evidential inequality, and (3) neglecting evidential complementarity. Simulations and theoretic arguments confirrm this. But there are five systematic exceptions where deliberation reduces majority competence, always by increasing failure (1). Our analysis recommends deliberation that is 'participatory', 'even', but possibly 'unequal', i.e., that involves substantive sharing, privileges no evidences, but possibly privileges some persons.
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Dates et versions

halshs-03667931 , version 1 (13-05-2022)
halshs-03667931 , version 2 (19-01-2024)
halshs-03667931 , version 3 (02-07-2024)

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  • HAL Id : halshs-03667931 , version 1

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Franz Dietrich, Kai Spiekermann. Deliberation and the Wisdom of Crowds. 2022. ⟨halshs-03667931v1⟩
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