Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns
Hippolyte d'Albis
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16845
- IdHAL : hippolyte-dalbis
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6409-4320
- IdRef : 07955279X
Josselin Thuilliez
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 6560
- IdHAL : jthuilliez
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5392-0917
- IdRef : 114620164
Résumé
We provide one of the first formalizations of a vaccination campaign in a decisiontheoretic framework. We analyse a model where an ambiguity-averse individual must decide how much effort to invest into prevention in the context of a rampant disease. We study how ambiguity aversion affects the effort and the estimation of the vaccine efficacy in clinical trials and immunization campaigns. We find that the behaviours of individuals participating in a clinical trial differ from individuals not participating. Individuals who are more optimistic toward vaccination participate more in trials. Their behaviours and efforts are also affected. As a result, because vaccine efficacy depends on unobserved behaviours and efforts, the biological effect of the vaccine becomes difficult to evaluate. During the scale-up phase of a vaccination campaign, provided that vaccine efficacy is established, we show that vaccine hesitancy may still be rational.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns
|
Résumé |
en
We provide one of the first formalizations of a vaccination campaign in a decisiontheoretic framework. We analyse a model where an ambiguity-averse individual must decide how much effort to invest into prevention in the context of a rampant disease. We study how ambiguity aversion affects the effort and the estimation of the vaccine efficacy in clinical trials and immunization campaigns. We find that the behaviours of individuals participating in a clinical trial differ from individuals not participating. Individuals who are more optimistic toward vaccination participate more in trials. Their behaviours and efforts are also affected. As a result, because vaccine efficacy depends on unobserved behaviours and efforts, the biological effect of the vaccine becomes difficult to evaluate. During the scale-up phase of a vaccination campaign, provided that vaccine efficacy is established, we show that vaccine hesitancy may still be rational.
|
Auteur(s) |
Hippolyte d'Albis
1, 2
, Johanna Etner
3
, Josselin Thuilliez
4, 5
1
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
2
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
3
EconomiX -
EconomiX
( 2564 )
- Bâtiment G
200 Avenue de la République
92001 NANTERRE CEDEX
- France
4
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
5
CNRS -
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
( 441569 )
- France
|
Licence |
Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Date de production/écriture |
2022-02
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2022
|
Date de publication électronique |
2022-09-18
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Référence interne |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Decision Theory, Vaccination, Clinical Trials, Immunization Campaigns Decision Theory, Immunization Campaigns
|
DOI | 10.1111/jpet.12617 |
Pubmed Id | 36246735 |
PubMed Central | PMC9538933 |
UT key WOS | 000857824000001 |
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