GVCs and the endogenous geography of RTAs
Lionel Fontagné
(1, 2)
,
Gianluca Santoni
(3)
Lionel Fontagné
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 6113
- IdHAL : lionelfontagne
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6450-3593
- IdRef : 029638062
Résumé
Geographical and economic characteristics help to predict Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), and we here argue that Global Value Chains (GVCs) are one of these predictors. We estimate the time-varying probability that a country pair share a trade agreement, identify pairs who should sign an RTA and have not yet done so, and among these potential RTAs those mostly driven by the participation of the country pairs in GVCs. Using a General-Equilibrium model of an endowment economy, we construct counterfactuals where the geography of RTAs is redesigned according to our predictions and assess the trade and welfare consequences of phasing-in such pending RTAs. We last simulate the impact of a slowdown of GVCs on trade and welfare.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
GVCs and the endogenous geography of RTAs
|
Résumé |
en
Geographical and economic characteristics help to predict Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), and we here argue that Global Value Chains (GVCs) are one of these predictors. We estimate the time-varying probability that a country pair share a trade agreement, identify pairs who should sign an RTA and have not yet done so, and among these potential RTAs those mostly driven by the participation of the country pairs in GVCs. Using a General-Equilibrium model of an endowment economy, we construct counterfactuals where the geography of RTAs is redesigned according to our predictions and assess the trade and welfare consequences of phasing-in such pending RTAs. We last simulate the impact of a slowdown of GVCs on trade and welfare.
|
Auteur(s) |
Lionel Fontagné
1, 2
, Gianluca Santoni
3
1
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
2
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
3
CEPII -
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales
( 39083 )
- 9 rue Georges Pitard - 75740 Paris Cedex 15
- France
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2021-02
|
Volume |
132
|
Page/Identifiant |
103656
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Preferential trade agreements, Global value chains, Structural gravity
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103656 |
UT key WOS | 000617819500002 |
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