Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations
Mahdi Ben Jelloul
(1)
,
Antoine Bozio
(2, 3, 1)
,
Elsa Perdrix
(4, 5)
,
Audrey Rain
(1)
,
Léa Toulemon
(1)
Antoine Bozio
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 743083
- IdHAL : antoine-bozio
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0201-6148
- IdRef : 129539597
Audrey Rain
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- Fonction : Auteur correspondant
- PersonId : 1268877
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Résumé
This paper aims at projecting the disabled population aged 60 or more, and at identifying the factors that impact those projections. To this aim, we develop a novel methodological approach which allows identifying the role of different parameters (e.g. a change in the probability to remain autonomous, a change in the distribution of survival gains across disability levels) in the forecast of morbidity. This paper focuses on the methodological aspect of this new method. It also provides, as an illustration, a projection of the French elderly disabled population in 2060, relying on the French CARE‑M data and on the European data SHARE. It shows, among other results, that matching the past evolution of the disability‑free life expectancy ratio to the total life expectancy requires optimistic assumptions regarding the evolution of the probability to remain autonomous.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations
|
Résumé |
en
This paper aims at projecting the disabled population aged 60 or more, and at identifying the factors that impact those projections. To this aim, we develop a novel methodological approach which allows identifying the role of different parameters (e.g. a change in the probability to remain autonomous, a change in the distribution of survival gains across disability levels) in the forecast of morbidity. This paper focuses on the methodological aspect of this new method. It also provides, as an illustration, a projection of the French elderly disabled population in 2060, relying on the French CARE‑M data and on the European data SHARE. It shows, among other results, that matching the past evolution of the disability‑free life expectancy ratio to the total life expectancy requires optimistic assumptions regarding the evolution of the probability to remain autonomous.
|
Auteur(s) |
Mahdi Ben Jelloul
1
, Antoine Bozio
2, 3, 1
, Elsa Perdrix
4, 5
, Audrey Rain
1
, Léa Toulemon
1
1
IPP -
Institut des politiques publiques
( 266522 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
2
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
3
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
4
LEDa -
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine
( 559342 )
- Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny - 75775 PARIS Cedex 16
- France
5
Legos -
Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé
( 163517 )
- "Université Paris-Dauphine Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 PARIS Cedex 16 "
- France
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Date de publication |
2023-05
|
Numéro |
538
|
Page/Identifiant |
13-30
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Microsimulation, Ageing, Elderly disability, Long‑term care
|
DOI | 10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2090 |
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