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Pré-publication, Document de travail Année : 2023

Deep Focusing. The Expert Construction of Credible Futures in Economic Forecasting

Résumé

In the absence of undisputed facts and evidence, the future can only be imagined. Suspension of disbelief is crucial for imagined futures to gain sufficient traction to enable action or elicit consensus. Through the case of macroeconomic forecasting, this paper examines how expert organization establish their credibility among their peers by creating a time-based order. The investigation draws on a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative data, interviews, and ethnographic observations. I introduce the concept of "deep focusing" to account for this three-part process: 1) breaking down the "future" into horizons based on specific issues and categories, rather than a determined period of time, 2) constructing a view of each of these horizons according to distinct, and sometimes antagonistic, principles, and 3) connecting these views to generate a cohesive continuous future, so that "the future" itself is the outcome of expert labor.

Domaines

Sociologie
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Dates et versions

halshs-04317968, version 1 (01-12-2023)

Licence

Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Partage selon les Conditions Initiales - CC BY 4.0

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  • HAL Id : halshs-04317968 , version 1

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Olivier Pilmis. Deep Focusing. The Expert Construction of Credible Futures in Economic Forecasting. 2023. ⟨halshs-04317968⟩
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Dernière date de mise à jour le 28/04/2024
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