Italy is one the countries with the highest wealth-to-income ratio in the developed world, but knowledge about the size distribution of wealth is currently limited. In this paper we estimate the distribution of personal wealth between 1995 and 2016, a period of economic turbulence and structural reforms. For this, we use a novel source on the full records of inheritance tax files, combined with surveys and national accounts. Unlike available statistics from household surveys alone, our estimates point to a sharp inversion of fortunes between the top and the bottom of the wealth distribution since the mid-1990s. Whereas the level of wealth concentration in Italy is in line with other European countries, its time trend appears more in line with the U.S., showing a large increase. Moreover, Italy stands out as one of the countries with the strongest decline in the wealth share of the bottom 50% of the population. A range of alternative series of wealth concentration, including estimates applying no adjustments and imputations, confirm our main findings. The paper also sheds new light on the determinants of wealth inequality trends. First, we show that although average wealth increases with age, dispersion within age groups remains very
high; hence age plays a marginal role in explaining wealth concentration. Second, we show that house prices explain little of the change in wealth across the distribution since 1995. Changes in equity prices account for a large share of wealth growth above the 99th percentile. However, all in all, changes in the volume of assets and savings appear to be the predominant force behind the increase in wealth inequality, even at the top. The probability of top earners to climb to the top of the wealth distribution has doubled since the 2000s. Third, we document the growing role of life-time wealth transfers receipts, their increasing concentration at the top, and their increasingly favourable tax treatment for the wealthy.
Italy is one the countries with the highest wealth-to-income ratio in the developed world, but knowledge about the size distribution of wealth is currently limited. In this paper we estimate the distribution of personal wealth between 1995 and 2016, a period of economic turbulence and structural reforms. For this, we use a novel source on the full records of inheritance tax files, combined with surveys and national accounts. Unlike available statistics from household surveys alone, our estimates point to a sharp inversion of fortunes between the top and the bottom of the wealth distribution since the mid-1990s. Whereas the level of wealth concentration in Italy is in line with other European countries, its time trend appears more in line with the U.S., showing a large increase. Moreover, Italy stands out as one of the countries with the strongest decline in the wealth share of the bottom 50% of the population. A range of alternative series of wealth concentration, including estimates applying no adjustments and imputations, confirm our main findings. The paper also sheds new light on the determinants of wealth inequality trends. First, we show that although average wealth increases with age, dispersion within age groups remains very
high; hence age plays a marginal role in explaining wealth concentration. Second, we show that house prices explain little of the change in wealth across the distribution since 1995. Changes in equity prices account for a large share of wealth growth above the 99th percentile. However, all in all, changes in the volume of assets and savings appear to be the predominant force behind the increase in wealth inequality, even at the top. The probability of top earners to climb to the top of the wealth distribution has doubled since the 2000s. Third, we document the growing role of life-time wealth transfers receipts, their increasing concentration at the top, and their increasingly favourable tax treatment for the wealthy.
Titre
en
The concentration of personal wealth in Italy 1995-2016
Auteur(s)
Paolo Acciari1
, Facundo Alvaredo2, 3
, Salvatore Morelli4
1
Ministry of Economy and Finance - Italy
( 1183174 )
- Italie
2
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne ( 7550 )
;
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
École des Ponts ParisTech ( 301545 )
;
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( 441569 )
;
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement ( 577435 )
3
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne UMR8545 ( 7550 )
;
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
École des Ponts ParisTech ( 301545 )
;
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( 441569 )
;
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement UMR1393 ( 577435 )
4
ROMA TRE -
Università degli Studi Roma Tre = Roma Tre University
( 302801 )
- Via Ostiense, 133 - 00154 Rome
- Italie
Public visé
Scientifique
Vulgarisation
Non
Comité de lecture
Oui
Audience
Internationale
Langue du document
Anglais
Nom de la revue
Journal of the European Economic Association
(ISSN : 1542-4766, ISSN électronique : 1542-4774)
Publié par Wiley
Revue non référencée dans Sherpa-Romeo
Paolo Acciari, Facundo Alvaredo, Salvatore Morelli. The concentration of personal wealth in Italy 1995-2016. Journal of the European Economic Association, In press. ⟨halshs-04352925⟩