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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2006

Fusion of experts' opinions on climate sensitivity with the Transferable Belief Model

Résumé

This paper aggregates experts' opinion on the climate sensitivity parameter from Morgan and Keith (1995) using the Transferable Belief Model. The non-independence of experts issue is dealt with by organizing experts into schools of thought, requiring non-interactivity only across but not within groups. The issue of dissonance, that is wide qualitative differences in beliefs, is dealt with by using a disjunctive rather than conjunctive rule to combine the groups. We find the fusion do not support the idea that climate sensitivity must necessarily be within the IPCC range at any level, that the plausibility of the [4.5, 12] range is about 0.62, and for [6.0, 12] it is 0.31.
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Dates et versions

halshs-00112129 , version 1 (07-11-2006)
halshs-00112129 , version 2 (18-12-2007)
halshs-00112129 , version 3 (19-05-2008)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-00112129 , version 1

Citer

Minh Ha-Duong. Fusion of experts' opinions on climate sensitivity with the Transferable Belief Model. 2006. ⟨halshs-00112129v1⟩

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