Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? - HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article dans une revue Economics Bulletin Année : 2008

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?

François Dossou
  • Fonction : Auteur
Sandrine Lardic
  • Fonction : Auteur
Karine Michalon
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 839541

Résumé

The recent period has highlighted a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts' anticipations. Literature on this subject underlines optimism in the financial analyst community. In this work, our significant contributions are twofold: we provide explanatory bias prediction models which will subsequently allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain the bias using macroeconomic as well as sector and firm specific variables. We obtain some important results. In particular, the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and their signs are coherent with the intuition. However, we conclude that the microeconomic variables are the main explanatory variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi-systematically to improve the forecasts of the analysts.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Can_earnings_forecast_be_improved_by_taking_into_account_the_forecast_bias.pdf ( 372.03 Ko ) Télécharger
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
Loading...

Dates et versions

halshs-00365972, version 1 (05-03-2009)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-00365972 , version 1

Citer

François Dossou, Sandrine Lardic, Karine Michalon. Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?. Economics Bulletin, 2008, Vol. 7 (NO. 11), pp. 1-20. ⟨halshs-00365972⟩
195 Consultations
181 Téléchargements
Dernière date de mise à jour le 28/04/2024
comment ces indicateurs sont-ils produits

Partager

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Plus