Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société
Article Dans Une Revue American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Année : 2019

Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times

Résumé

This paper analyzes optimal fiscal policy with ambiguity aversion and endogenous government spending. We show that, without ambiguity, optimal surplus-to-output ratios are acyclical and that there is no rationale for either reduction or further accumulation of public debt. In contrast, ambiguity about the cycle can generate optimally policies that resemble "austerity" measures. Optimal policy prescribes higher taxes in adverse times and front-loaded fiscal consolidations that lead to a balanced primary budget in the long-run. This is the case when interest rates are sufficiently responsive to cyclical shocks, that is, when the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is sufficiently low.
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Dates et versions

halshs-02084280 , version 1 (19-12-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Axelle Ferriere, Anastasios Karantounias. Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019, 11 (1), pp.89-131. ⟨10.1257/mac.20160085⟩. ⟨halshs-02084280⟩
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