Decision Under Normative Uncertainty - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société
Autre Publication Scientifique Documents de travail du Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne Année : 2021

Decision Under Normative Uncertainty

Résumé

While ordinary decision theory focuses on empirical uncertainty, real decision-makers also face normative uncertainty: uncertainty about value itself. From a purely formal perspective, normative uncertainty is comparable to (Harsanyian or Rawlsian) identity uncertainty in the 'original position', where one's future values are unknown. A comprehensive decision theory must address twofold uncertainty — normative and empirical. We present a simple model of twofold uncertainty, and show that the most popular decision principle — maximising expected value ( 'Expectationalism') — has different formulations, namely Ex-Ante Expectationalism, Ex-Post Expectationalism, and hybrid theories. These alternative theories recommend different decisions, reasoning modes, and attitudes to risk. But they converge under an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
20015RRR.pdf (550.74 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

halshs-02905431 , version 1 (23-07-2020)
halshs-02905431 , version 2 (17-03-2021)
halshs-02905431 , version 3 (12-07-2021)
halshs-02905431 , version 4 (13-10-2021)

Licence

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-02905431 , version 4

Citer

Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. 2021. ⟨halshs-02905431v4⟩
355 Consultations
644 Téléchargements

Partager

More