Epidemiology inspired Cybersecurity Threats Forecasting Models applied to e-Government - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société
Chapitre D'ouvrage Année : 2024

Epidemiology inspired Cybersecurity Threats Forecasting Models applied to e-Government

Jean Langlois-Berthelot
  • Fonction : Auteur
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Christophe Gaie
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

This chapter delves into the innovative fusion of epidemiology and cybersecurity, presenting a novel paradigm for forecasting cybеr threats with applications for e-Government. Drawing inspiration from epidemiological models that predict the spread of diseases, we propose pionееring approaches to anticipate and mitigate cybеr threats in the digital governance landscape. To enhance the robustness of cyberattack forecasting, the chapter explores ensemble methods that combine predictions from multiple epidemiology models. This approach aims to mitigate individual model biases and improve forecasting accuracy. It also outlines that human expertise is required to contextualize the forecasts, identifying potential outliers, and define cybersecurity strategies. In conclusion, this chapter provides a comparison of the proposed models and identifies future challenges to enhance cybersecurity of e-Government.
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Dates et versions

halshs-04568760 , version 1 (05-05-2024)

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Citer

Jean Langlois-Berthelot, Christophe Gaie, Jean-Fabrice Lebraty. Epidemiology inspired Cybersecurity Threats Forecasting Models applied to e-Government. Transforming Public Services—Combining Data and Algorithms to Fulfil Citizen’s Expectations, 252, Springer Nature Switzerland, pp.151-174, 2024, Intelligent Systems Reference Library, 978-3-031-55574-9. ⟨10.1007/978-3-031-55575-6⟩. ⟨halshs-04568760⟩
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